El Niño and the Anchovy Fishery: How the Pacific Shakes Global Food Supply

Peru’s anchovy fishery has the biggest production in the world, accounting for one-fifth of the global fish meal which can then be used for aquaculture and animal husbandry purposes.
What’s the Story with 2026?
Warm water conditions caused anchovy fishery to miss distribution. The first season in the northern-central region had a quota of 1.91 million tonnes and was closed in August after catching only 25 percent of anchovies, whereas the second season was cancelled on October 16.
Why Is Warm Water Bad?
Warm water conditions affect fish as well as the whole food chain with Peru’s research institute finding that biomass dropped 27.9 percent with the proportion of juveniles reaching 79 percent, thus safeguarding the stock to allow recovery.
What Does This Mean for People’s Food?
Supply shocks result in increased fishmeal costs and food producers turning to soybean meal as in 1972. A new El Niño phenomenon’s impact may stretch into 2027, whereas marine heatwaves will bring more distress to manufacturers.
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