When Will Monsoon Reach India This Year: How Much Rainfall To Be Expected In Mumbai & North India?
After several months of heat waves, dust storms, and rising temperatures, India’s largest weather event, the southwest monsoon, is beginning to get closer to us all. The onset of the entire monsoon season is still developing; however, current forecasts anticipate the southwest monsoon will start to progress toward the southern Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Islands during the second half of May and move into mainland India by June.
On the other hand, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is cautioning that overall the southwest monsoon may be slightly weaker than average due in part to developing El Niño conditions.
Expected Monsoon Timeline for Mainland India
Kerala
The southwest monsoon typically arrives in Kerala in late May or early June. Current atmospheric conditions suggest a near average onset of the monsoon; however, with ongoing El Niño development, large fluctuations are possible.
Mumbai
The southwest monsoon typically begins in Mumbai during the second week of June. To date, there has not been a significant early indication of arrival.
What is noteworthy is that pre-monsoon storm activity and humidity is on the rise in western India; therefore, it is quite likely that Mumbai will experience “monsoon-like” weather before the actual arrival of the southwest monsoon.
North India
Most of northern India receives southwest monsoon rainfall between late June and early July, i.e., Delhi, part of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana. Expected alternations of rainfall and sunshine will continue in those areas.
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What Weather Experts Expect Before Monsoon Arrival
In anticipation of the coming monsoon in 2026, meteorologists expect the following to happen in India before the monsoon’s full arrival:
– The continued occurrence of heatwaves across the northwest and central portions of India.
– Dust storms and nighttime thunderstorms to form intermittently.
– Increased humidity will be felt following short-duration rain events and again before the next rain.
– Sudden changes in temperature will occur from warm to cold, and vice-versa with precipitation.
– Monsoonal conditions will fluctuate, and extreme weather will be expected over the course of the monsoon period.
Final Words
Weather forecasts for the 2026 monsoon season in India suggest significant unpredictability in rainfall amounts across India and an increased likelihood of flash flooding in Mumbai. The Indian monsoon is also expected to contain significant regional variability with respect to rainfall amounts and duration of high heat over the duration of the monsoon season.
FAQs
1) What will the date of arrival of the monsoon season in Mumbai 2026 be?
Assuming that seasonal weather patterns evolve in a normal manner, the monsoon should begin between the 7th and 10th of June 2026.
2) How much rainfall will there be in northern India in 2026?
Rainfall amounts will be variable throughout the 2026 monsoon season, with segments of extremely high rainfall amounts interrupted by segments of longer than usual periods of dry weather.
3) How will El Niña affect the arrival of the 2026 Indian Monsoon?
Models of climate change predict that the arrival of the 2026 Indian Monsoon will be significantly impacted by the development of El Niño conditions.
4) Do you expect flooding in Mumbai, even if the estimates for rainfall for the 2026 monsoon season are lower than anticipated?
Yes, despite an anticipated decrease in overall rainfall amounts in Mumbai during the 2026 monsoon season, the probability exists that multiple short-duration heavy rainfall events will occur and subsequently result in flooding.
