Dubai is in the middle of Summer at this time. Temperatures that build up throughout May are already through the roof in April (and early May) creating a situation called “The Early Heat Curve” where this summer will have the earliest and longest extreme temperatures.
What “Early Heat Curve” Means
Temperatures are increasing rapidly and will result in:
- An overall increased duration of extreme heat
- An average significantly higher temperature than the historical peak of summer
- Increased stress on people, electrical systems and infrastructure
Why Dubai Is Heating Up Faster
1) Early High-Pressure Domination
High pressure over the region has been persistent and has limited clouds, trapping heat on the ground.
- Clear Skies = Maximized Solar Radiation
- Sinking Air = Limited Cool Performace
- Daily Increase in Heat Accumulated
2) Influence of El Niño
The developing El Niño is changing the overall circulation of the globe which is:
- Increasing West Asia’s Average Temperatures
- Decreasing Variability in Early Season Weather
- Lengthening the Number of days in “Stable” and “Hot” Conditions
3) Desert Climate Amplification
Being that Dubai is in the desert, the area heats very quickly, especially with the following conditions modifying the typical pattern for that time of year.
- Desert Sand and Dry Solid Ground will quickly absorb heat.
- Vegetation in and around the city limits its cooling capacity
- The rate of increase in heat becomes more abrupt than it should.
4) Urban Heat Island Effect
Because of the growth of Dubai and its urban footprint, the overall heat of the area will also dramatically increase. This document will discuss how the early heat curve (and subsequent heat activity) will impact future weather patterns in Dubai and compare forecasted weather patterns to show the expected average temperatures due to high pressure in the area.
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What This Means for the Coming Weeks
If this trend continues then Dubai may begin to see:
- Heatwaves at an earlier entry date and longer duration in extreme instances
- Increased days of 45C – 48C sooner than historically has happened
- Hot nights and little-to-no cooling during the overnight period
- Increased demand for electricity and water
Final Words
The heat curve of Dubai represents that climate patterns are changing; that extreme weather has already moved into a different pattern where extremes are no longer restricted to the month of July.
The biggest challenge is not only the amount of heat that we are experiencing but also how soon it is here and how long it remains.
FAQs
1. Does Dubai have a history of experiencing high heat sooner?
No, this season’s heat has reached Dubai earlier than traditionally.
2. Will we continue to see temperature levels go up?
Yes, we have not yet reached the peak of summer.
3. Why do we feel the heat more than typically?
Because we are already at an increased level of humidity for the time of year, and the previous months’ temperatures have already achieved historically high levels.
4. Is climate change impacting the heat?
Yes, climate change is affecting this heat, in addition to regional atmospheric patterns, and due to El Niño.
