Nations have agreed to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C. The UNEP report of 2026 indicates that the possibility of containing exceedance to “none or little” has passed.
What exactly does exceedance mean?
Exceedance refers to the temporary increase in temperature above 1.5°C ( cold overshoot) and subsequent bringing it down through cutting emissions or CO2 sequestration. The limit referred to in the Paris Agreement is determined by a multi-year average; therefore, a single record-high year does not represent a violation, but the WMO predicts a 70 percent probability that the period from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the mentioned threshold.
What is to suffer once we exceed the 1.5°C threshold?
According to the UNEP, coral reefs will wipe away 70-90 percent of their population at 1.5°C and will die out at 2°C. Every year the temperature goes above 1.5°C brings more hazards for the ice cover, permafrost areas, oceans currents, and coral reefs, as warned by UNEP.
Can we take our temperature levels back?
The low-overshoot projection requires emissions to go down by 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035, and by 69 percent by 2040, resulting in a 50 percent chance to go back to 1.5°C level by the year 2100. Scientist Hausfather casts doubts that it is possible to finance the large-scale overshoot removal.
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