India’s monsoon — rather than becoming less intense or more powerful — is becoming increasingly unpredictable. India monsoon climate change, In fact, while the overall amount of rainfall in central India has reduced considerably, the frequency of torrential rainfalls has increased dramatically.
What Does The Data Show?
A study conducted by Nature Communications witnessed the alarming increase of extreme rainfall events in central India threefold in the period from 1950 to 2015.
- Heavy Days: Days with 150 meters of rain have increased by 75%.
- Less rain total: This happened despite the decline in the total amount of rain.
- Recent Years: An IMD study of the period from 2000 to 2024 demonstrated that the phenomenon of increasing variability is witnessed along with extreme rainfall.
What Is The Reason For This?
Researchers indicate that growing variability of low-pressure monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea is the ultimate cause of continuous moisture surges and, as a consequence, extreme rainfall events. Other researchers point to the rapid increase in the temperature of the Indian Ocean.
What Are the Expectations of the IPCC?
The IPCC forecasts that monsoon seasons will become longer, leading to heavy rain and more occurrences of floods and droughts in the future. The monsoon of 2021 was, on average, “normal,” but it occurred unevenly in time and location.
Why It Is Important – India monsoon climate change
Almost 500 million people live in central India, where agriculture, floods and water supply depend on rain. The unpredictable nature of rainfall complicates forecasting and farming planning.
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