The Asian Development Bank has just released the first “Asia-Pacific Climate Report” and it paints a fairly bleak picture of the potential economic cost of climate change on the region. Under a high emissions scenario, based on business-as-usual emissions trends, the Asia-Pacific region could lose up to 16.9% of its GDP by 2070 with India being potentially worst off at 24.7%. It notes that these losses would be occasioned by increased sea levels and declining labor productivity most especially affecting low-income and fragile states.
Increased emissions and the local effects
Developing Asia has become a major emitter of greenhouse gases having sharply increased its share from 29.4% in the year 2000 to 45.9% in the year 2021. China is leading this increase and contributed about 30% of the global emissions in 2021. However, while the region contains 60% of humanity, its per-head emissions are below the global average, an indication of the delicate interplay between growth and sustainability.
According to the report, Bangladesh could lose $ 30.5 billion or 30.5% of its GDP on average, and India $ 24.7 billion or 24.7% while the Southeast Asian nations average $ 23.4 billion. These projections suggest the extent to which the region is exposed to climate-related challenges and coastal areas are most affected. Many coastal cities will be at high risk of flooding by 2070, with up to 300 million population at risk which requires immediate adaptation.
Economic Consequences and Natural Disasters
Losses in labor productivity could lead to a 4.9% decrease in GDP for the Asia-Pacific region by 2070, and India could experience an 11.6% decrease in only this category. It is projected that more significant river flooding will be devastating and will result in an average of $1.3 trillion in annual damage by 2070 with over 110 million people affected annually. India is considered as the country, which has the greatest number of people influenced by the catastrophe and the greatest expenditure on the damages.
