Researchers at MIT recently revealed a new approach to show the personal effects of climate change by what is termed “outdoor days,” or the number of days per year that are perfectly suitable for outdoor activities, such as strolling, sport, or simply sitting outside over a meal. This type of climatic change emphasises the distinctions that the change will have in day-to-day life in specific regions. Their research finds that, for example, the Southeastern U.S., including Florida, would see a large drop in outdoor days, but perhaps only an increase in the Northwest.
Published in Geophysical Research Letters, The researchers analysed two climate scenarios, one in which actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are maximised and another in which emissions continue unabated. They saw consistent results across 32 climate models, dramatic differences in how high future those two paths may be outside, particularly when it comes to spending days outdoors. The Southeastern U.S. may stand to lose a considerable number of comfortable outdoor days by the turn of the century as the quality of life, tourism, and even retirement trends dip due to Floridian appeal as a warm destination starting to fade away.
The group also looked at data from 1961 to 2020 and matched it against projections for the last three decades of this century. The authors found major regional shifts, where what already is the case in Florida having hotter summers drive outdoor activities into spring and fall will hold true across the United States. The Southwest, for instance, will have its outdoor days nearly cutted off by 23%, while the Northwest will gain 14%, though there is little to speak of besides overall benefits.
Besides temperature analysis, this study further refers to a tourism pattern, which, by obvious reasons, is dependent on climate conditions and the number of tourists visiting a place like an American national park. It indicates how the seasonal time for outdoor activities will shift, with hot summers implying more days spent outdoors in spring and fall.
People asked to prefer comfort ranges over outdoor activities, based on temperature, humidity or precipitation into an online application developed by the MIT team. This would reveal how climate change could impact outdoor days in a certain location under their comfort preferences.
After all, climate change is not an abstract concept it touches everyday life. The study intends to bring the effects closer to people’s homes and hopes the results will facilitate further understanding from the public and foster actual changes in policy that rely on science. The project was sponsored by the Community Jameel, Jameel Observatory CREWSnet and the Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab at MIT.
