Heat-related deaths in the coolest inhabited continent on the planet is expected to triple by the end of the century, according to a study published in the Lancet Public Health. It highlighted that southern European countries like Italy and Spain could see a disproportionate rise in number.
Cold kills more people than heat in Europe. Some people, therefore, have argued that climate change is actually a boon for society as it could reduce those fatalities. But the study found that the death toll isn’t likely to respond at an effective rate to the heat and may even rise.
Reminder of the need to act quickly against climate change
Many more heat-related deaths are expected to occur as the climate heats up faster and populations age, amid deaths from cold declining only slightly, according to David Garcia-Leon from the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, a co-author of the study.
The study is a stark reminder of the need to act quickly against climate change. Deaths from heat could kill 129,000 people a year if temperatures rise to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Today, heat-related fatalities on the continent stand at 44,000.
The yearly death toll from cold and heat in Europe may rise to 450,000 people in 2100 from 407,000 today even if global leaders meet their target of limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the study found.
Some Europeans could be disproportionately affected
Researchers modelled data on 854 cities to estimate deaths from hot and cold temperatures across Europe. They found that the heaviest burden is likely to fall on southern European countries such as Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France.
The researchers concluded that efforts to adapt should focus on regions having high unemployment, structural economic changes, poverty, emigration and ageing populations – as such areas are less able to adapt to climate damages and also hit harder by heat.
