There is growing optimism in China‘s green transition at a time when it is being asked to take the lead on global climate action as nearly half of experts polled by a climate think tank say the country’s carbon dioxide emissions have already peaked or will do so in 2025.
In a survey released Tuesday by the research group Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), 44% of academic and industrial climate experts predict that China’s CO2 emissions will peak no later than 2025. Just 21% of experts responded in the same way in the study conducted last year.
Additionally there is increased hope that China will lessen its need for coal. 36% of experts up from 20% the previous year responded that they thought the country’s coal use had already peaked.
China’s official goals are to become carbon neutral by 2060 and reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. During the 14th “five year plan” which runs until the end of 2025, Beijing has also promised to “strictly control” the usage of coal.
Nearly 80% of China’s emissions from fossil fuels come from coal.
Wang Xiaojun, the founder of People of Asia for Climate Solutions which is a climate NGO based in Shanxi, “China already plans to reduce its coal consumption after 2026 but this cut will definitely have to be pretty drastic and fast if China wants to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal.”
But according to Wang, “China has not yet talked about coal phase out” because of officials worries about energy security which grew when power outages occurred in numerous parts of the country in 2021 and 2022 and after the conflict in Ukraine disrupted oil supply. This is true even though energy experts claim that diversifying China’s energy mix and enhancing its renewable energy infrastructure are also practical means of guaranteeing energy security without depending on coal fired power plants for backup.
China is a global leader in clean energy investment as well. According to earlier research by Lauri Myllyvirta, principal analyst at CREA, clean energy was the main driver of GDP growth and contributed a record 11.4 trillion yuan (£154.4 billion) to China’s economy last year.
China has spent the last two years concentrating on reviving its economy after COVID-19 by shifting its focus to green, high-tech sectors. These have drawn significant investment and have been dubbed the “new three” solar panels, electric cars and batteries.
The ability of China to lower its economy’s carbon intensity, the quantity of CO2 emitted to generate one unit of electricity, is another area of interest for analysts.
China’s intentions will influence the course of the worldwide transition as the nation is accountable for 90% of the increase in CO2 emissions since 2015. However when it comes to targets, the nation is often conservative.
