2026 Climate Signal: Why Scientists Think It Could Be an Extreme Heat Year
Strong climate indicators explain why scientists think 2026 could be another extreme heat year, with global models signalling hotter conditions across many regions.
Early signals suggest 2026 could land as another punishing heat year, not as a one-off shock, but as part of a run that keeps extending. Forecasters point to a hotter baseline, record-warm oceans, and weather patterns that now tip into extremes faster than they used to. That’s the mood in climate briefings right now.
Why 2026 Looks Primed for Heat Again
The UK Met Office outlook puts 2026’s global average temperature around 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, keeping it in the top tier of hottest years. Separately, the World Meteorological Organization has warned the 2025–2029 period is likely to stay at or near record warmth, with heatwaves becoming more frequent as oceans hold and release extra energy. Even the first weeks of 2026 have opened with intense heat alerts in parts of the world, shared by official channels.
What Forecasters will Track Next
- Sea-surface temperatures and marine heatwaves
- El Niño or La Niña shifts
- Long, dry spells that set up heatwaves
