Global Emissions Cuts Still Lagging, Post-COP30 Forecast Reveals
The latest Post-COP30 Forecast says emissions cuts are still lagging despite global pledges. The report reveals widening gaps in climate action and delivery plans.
After COP30, fresh modelling still shows the world missing the pace needed for safer warming limits. A new outlook, linked to MIT projections, puts the peak of global emissions closer to 2030, then only a slow decline. The headline message stays blunt: promised cuts exist on paper, but delivery stays late.
Emissions Cuts Still Lagging After COP30
Recent post-COP30 modelling suggests emissions keep climbing for several years, pushed by liquid fuels and gas demand, even as renewables expand. The study tracks two pathways: current trends versus accelerated actions. Only the faster track bends emissions enough to match long-term stabilisation.
Outside modelling, the UN’s NDC check points to a similar gap. Reported plans imply about a 10% fall by 2035, far below the roughly 60% drop needed in the same period for a 1.5°C-aligned pathway.
What is driving the lag, as analysts see it:
- Slow retirement of oil and gas assets
- Methane cuts not matching the pledge pathway
- Finance and grids moving, yet not fast enough
Officials also point to implementation gaps. WMO said the distance between reality and what science demands remains dangerously wide post-COP30. In Europe, the EU agreed a 2040 target of 90% cuts, with a small share allowed via foreign carbon credits.
What’s Trending After Belém
One big talking point this month: Carbon Majors data showing a small set of fossil fuel firms linked to a huge share of CO₂. It is feeding legal and policy pressure in Europe and the US.
Another: methane. UNEP-linked tracking says current policies fall short of the 30% pledge target for 2030, despite ready tech in waste and energy systems.
